← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Apr 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 51% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Notts County win | 25% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Notts County +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Paddy Madden · Stockport |
| 32' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Paddy Madden · Stockport |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ethan Bristow · Stockport |
| 40' | ⚽ | Paddy Madden · Stockport |
| 50' | ⚽ | Antoni Sarcevic · Stockport |
| 61' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 63' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 71' | 🟨 | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 76' | 🟨 | Antoni Sarcevic · Stockport |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ethan Pye |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 685.00 |
| 897.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.80 |
| elo | 1460.78 | 1648.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.57 | 35.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 58.00 | 86.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.12 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.60 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |