← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Wrexham win | 70% | 64% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.31 | value: +23% |
| Forest Green win | 11% | 12% | 8.84 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Forest Green −1.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Wrexham −1.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 61% | 1.71 | value: +5% |
| Under | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand