← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stockport win | 62% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 13% | 19% | 7.11 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Stockport −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 2 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand