← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 38% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Bradford win | 34% | 34% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Bradford +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 51% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Denver Hume · Grimsby |
| 53' | 🟨 | Daniel Oyegoke · Bradford |
| 55' | ⚽ | Curtis Thompson · Grimsby |
| 56' | 🟨 | Calum Kavanagh · Bradford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matthew Platt · Bradford |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tyreik Wright · Bradford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ciaran Kelly · Bradford |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jamie Andrews · Grimsby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harvey Rodgers · Grimsby |
| 90' | 🟥 | Denver Hume · Grimsby |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| Richard Smallwood · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 152.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1233.69 | 1305.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.91 | -65.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.32 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | — |
| league points | 39.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.61 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 26.07 |
| state index | -0.95 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |