← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Durkin
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Swindon win | 40% | 41% | 2.42 | fair |
| Notts County win | 35% | 30% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.05 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Notts County −0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Swindon −0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 69% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 31% | 3.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand