← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 44% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 27% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Morecambe +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +4% |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jordan Slew · Morecambe |
| 18' | ⚽ | Oliver Hawkins · Gillingham |
| 23' | 🟨 | Charlie Brown · Morecambe |
| 61' | 🟨 | Joe Adams · Morecambe |
| 64' | ⚽ | Charlie Brown · Morecambe |
| 73' | ⚽ | Timothée Dieng · Gillingham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jordan Slew · Morecambe |
| 83' | 🟨 | Scott Malone · Gillingham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Connor Mahoney · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nelson Khumbeni · Morecambe |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Mazuma Mobile Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Timothée Dieng · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 143.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1310.61 | 1293.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.73 | -11.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 54.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.99 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 29.27 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |