β EFL League Two 2023-24 Β· Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Oldham
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Wrexham win | 59% | 65% | 1.62 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.34 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 18% | 12% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Tranmere β1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wrexham β1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 40% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand