← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County win | 43% | 37% | 2.23 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 29% | 40% | 3.41 | value: +35% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Morecambe −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Aaron Wildig · Newport County |
| 18' | ⚽ | Adam Lewis · Newport County |
| 24' | 🟨 | David Tutonda · Morecambe |
| 31' | ⚽ | Gwion Edwards · Morecambe |
| 33' | 🟨 | Aaron Wildig · Newport County |
| 40' | 🟨 | Will Evans · Newport County |
| 54' | ⚽ | Aaron Wildig · Newport County |
| 67' | 🟨 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 70' | ⚽ | Christopher Stokes · Morecambe |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gwion Edwards · Morecambe |
| 78' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 23 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| ⚽ |
| Harry Charsley · Newport County |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sebastian Palmer-Houlden · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 528.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1494.95 | 1503.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.18 | -18.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.30 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| league points | 49.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.26 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |