← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 5, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 48% | 52% | 2.05 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Doncaster win | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Bradford −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Clarke Oduor · Bradford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sam Stubbs · Bradford |
| 30' | 🟨 | James Maxwell · Doncaster |
| 32' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Bradford |
| 41' | 🟨 | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
| 43' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Doncaster |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tomkinson · Bradford |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tyler Smith · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Wilson · Bradford |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | University of Bradford Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Thimothee Lo-Tutala · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 125.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1523.29 | 1419.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.18 | 39.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.70 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 17.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.98 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |