← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 57% | 63% | 1.70 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.20 | fair |
| Sutton win | 20% | 19% | 4.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Sutton −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 41% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ryan Jackson · Sutton |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 16' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Sutton |
| 22' | 🟨 | Sashiel Adom-Malaki · Sutton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ben Goodliffe · Sutton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 51' | 🟨 | Charlie Lakin · Sutton |
| 64' | ⚽ | Oliver Sanderson · Sutton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jim O'Brien · Notts County |
| 70' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 77' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Sutton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Charlie Lakin · Sutton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sam Hart · Sutton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Craig Clay · Sutton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 636.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1284.74 | 1201.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.17 | -20.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 47.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.31 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.95 | -1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.02 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |