← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 48% | 59% | 2.00 | value: +17% |
| Crewe win | 26% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.84 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Notts County −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mickey Demetriou · Crewe |
| 18' | 🟨 | Luca Ashby-Hammond · Notts County |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Elliott Nevitt · Crewe |
| 27' | 🟨 | Charlie Kirk · Crewe |
| 53' | 🟨 | Mickey Demetriou · Crewe |
| 54' | 🟨 | John Bostock · Notts County |
| 77' | ⚽ | Josh Austerfield · Crewe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ed Turns · Crewe |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jim O'Brien · Notts County |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| 🟨 |
| Rio Adebisi · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alassana Jatta · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 633.00 | 480.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1298.39 | 1389.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.50 | 10.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.00 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 47.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.44 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.19 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |