← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Wrexham win | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wrexham −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 49% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 51% | 2.19 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | James McClean · Wrexham |
| 26' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 48' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Wrexham |
| 60' | 🟥 | Dean Lewington · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 62' | 🟨 | Eoghan O'Connell · Wrexham |
| 77' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Wrexham |
| 77' | 🟥 | William Boyle · Wrexham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Warren O'Hora · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadium mk |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 142.00 | 964.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1401.40 | 1379.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.58 | -27.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 54.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | -1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 28.22 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.44 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |