← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 46% | 50% | 2.12 | value: +6% |
| Doncaster win | 28% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Doncaster −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.12 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 8' | ⚽ | Joe Ironside · Doncaster |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Danny Rose · Grimsby |
| 28' | 🟨 | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam Smith · Grimsby |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Niall Maher · Doncaster |
| 53' | 🟨 | Matthew Craig · Doncaster |
| 72' | ⚽ | Matthew Craig · Doncaster |
| 74' | 🟨 | Harry Clifton · Grimsby |
| 82' | ⚽ | Kyle Hurst · Doncaster |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| Jamie Sterry · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 108.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1410.15 | 1395.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.37 | -1.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 29.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |