← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 48% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +6% |
| Morecambe win | 26% | 25% | 3.94 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Tranmere −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Robert Apter · Tranmere |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Connor Jennings · Tranmere |
| 14' | ⚽ | Charlie Brown · Morecambe |
| 27' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kieron Morris · Tranmere |
| 41' | 🟨 | Joe Adams · Morecambe |
| 55' | 🟨 | Harvey Saunders · Tranmere |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nelson Khumbeni · Morecambe |
| 75' | 🟨 | Josh Hawkes · Tranmere |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jordan Slew · Morecambe |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| 🟨 |
| Paul Lewis · Tranmere |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jacob Davenport · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 165.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1481.17 | 1510.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.65 | 17.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.64 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 37.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |