← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Barrow win | 58% | 63% | 1.68 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.00 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 18% | 19% | 5.56 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barrow −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Forest Green −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 43% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 57% | 2.06 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand