← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 37% | 44% | 2.75 | value: +22% |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 35% | 30% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Mansfield +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Stephen Quinn · Mansfield |
| -5' | 🟥 | Stephen Quinn · Mansfield |
| 20' | 🟥 | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Louis Reed · Mansfield |
| 45' | ⚽ | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 58' | 🟨 | Lewis Brunt · Mansfield |
| 62' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Mansfield |
| 68' | 🟨 | Armani Little · AFC Wimbledon |
| 72' | 🟨 | Aron Sasu · AFC Wimbledon |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stephen Quinn · Mansfield |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ronan Curtis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ronan Curtis · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 636.00 | 1182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 4.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1304.64 | 1468.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.99 | -14.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.79 | -0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 39.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.09 | 30.20 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |