← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
| Newport County win | 24% | 27% | 4.06 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Newport County +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟥 | William Boyle · Wrexham |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sebastian Palmer-Houlden · Newport County |
| 37' | 🟨 | Bryn Morris · Newport County |
| 37' | 🟨 | James McClean · Wrexham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Will Evans · Newport County |
| 64' | 🟨 | Harry Charsley · Newport County |
| 84' | 🟨 | Eoghan O'Connell · Wrexham |
| 89' | 🟨 | James Waite · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastian Palmer-Houlden · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Townsend · Newport County |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Ollie Palmer · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 476.00 | 933.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1475.88 | 1537.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.92 | 34.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.80 |
| league points | 34.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |