← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 51% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Crewe win | 22% | 21% | 4.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Crewe −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 49% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 51% | 2.09 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Shilow Tracey · Crewe |
| 9' | ⚽ | Robbie Gotts · Barrow |
| 19' | ⚽ | Elliott Nevitt · Crewe |
| 64' | ⚽ | Lewis Billington · Crewe |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lewis Billington · Crewe |
| 84' | ⚽ | Matúš Holíček · Crewe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mickey Demetriou · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Chester · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elliott Nevitt · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Connor O'Riordan · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barrow | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | SO Legal Stadium |
| Luke Offord · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 568.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1552.02 | 1537.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.55 | 14.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 49.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |