← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 44% | 39% | 2.21 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 30% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.81 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Forest Green −0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Fankaty Dabo · Forest Green |
| 21' | 🟨 | Teddy Jenks · Forest Green |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jamie Robson · Forest Green |
| 56' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Remeao Hutton · Swindon |
| 74' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Forest Green |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alfie Bendle · Forest Green |
| 81' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ryan Inniss · Forest Green |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| 🟨 |
| Harrison Minturn · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 242.00 | 546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1451.84 | 1400.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.60 | -34.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| league points | 30.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | -1.18 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |