← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 59% | 62% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.34 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 19% | 17% | 5.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crawley Town −1 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 44% | 2.36 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand