← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 62% | 66% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.34 | fair |
| Colchester win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Colchester −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Josh Davison · AFC Wimbledon |
| 7' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 25' | ⚽ | Joe Taylor · Colchester |
| 39' | 🟨 | Noah Chilvers · Colchester |
| 42' | ⚽ | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 52' | ⚽ | Josh Davison · AFC Wimbledon |
| 67' | ⚽ | Ali Al-Hamadi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Josh Davison · AFC Wimbledon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 80' | 🟨 | Huseyin Biler · AFC Wimbledon |
| 81' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 31 | Shots | 14 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 89' | 🟥 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tom Dallison · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 607.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1490.61 | 1399.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.91 | -22.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |