← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County win | 44% | 41% | 2.24 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 30% | 33% | 3.33 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Forest Green −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Delaney · Forest Green |
| 16' | 🟨 | Kyle McAllister · Forest Green |
| 18' | 🟨 | Omar Bogle · Newport County |
| 18' | 🟨 | Will Evans · Newport County |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mathew Stevens · Forest Green |
| 38' | 🟨 | Callum Morton · Forest Green |
| 41' | 🟨 | Callum Jones · Forest Green |
| 45' | 🟨 | Charlie McCann · Forest Green |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lewis Payne · Newport County |
| 51' | 🟨 | Callum Jones · Forest Green |
| 51' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 🟥 |
| Callum Jones · Forest Green |
| 60' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Newport County |
| 63' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Newport County |
| 69' | ⚽ | Lewis Payne · Newport County |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jordan Moore-Taylor · Forest Green |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ryan Delaney · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 451.00 | 543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1456.98 | 1410.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.04 | -26.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.50 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |