← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 45% | 39% | 2.15 | fair |
| Accrington win | 30% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Accrington −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +5% |
| Under | 44% | 38% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Aaron Rowe · Crewe |
| 6' | ⚽ | Jack Nolan · Accrington |
| 29' | ⚽ | Mickey Demetriou · Crewe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Shilow Tracey · Crewe |
| 51' | 🟨 | Conor Thomas · Crewe |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dan Martin · Accrington |
| 80' | 🟥 | Luke Offord · Crewe |
| 87' | ⚽ | Benjamin Woods · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elliott Nevitt · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brad Hills · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crewe | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Mornflake Stadium |
| Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elliott Nevitt · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 410.00 | 4093.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1541.58 | 1539.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.23 | -38.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 36.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |