← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Crawley Town +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Will Wright · Crawley Town |
| 12' | ⚽ | Baily Cargill · Mansfield |
| 25' | 🟨 | Dion Conroy · Crawley Town |
| 26' | 🟨 | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ollie Clarke · Mansfield |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Crawley Town |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ben Gladwin · Crawley Town |
| 56' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Mansfield |
| 58' | 🟨 | Liam Kelly · Crawley Town |
| 59' | 🟨 | Lewis Brunt · Mansfield |
| 64' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| George Maris · Mansfield |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
| 68' | 🟥 | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 349.00 | 1140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1445.67 | 1626.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.35 | -0.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 17.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |