← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Nov 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 70% | 69% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.23 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 11% | 12% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mansfield −1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +3% |
| Under | 42% | 37% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Charlie Jolley · Tranmere |
| 25' | 🟨 | Louis Reed · Mansfield |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Tranmere |
| 37' | ⚽ | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kieron Morris · Tranmere |
| 52' | 🟨 | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Mansfield |
| 62' | ⚽ | Robert Apter · Tranmere |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jake Leake · Tranmere |
| 79' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Tranmere |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Jordan Turnbull · Tranmere |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1122.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1632.91 | 1429.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.13 | 23.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.56 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.73 |
| league points | 35.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |