← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Nov 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 52% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.78 | fair |
| Colchester win | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Colchester −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Tom Hopper · Colchester |
| 33' | ⚽ | James Maxwell · Doncaster |
| 43' | ⚽ | Joe Taylor · Colchester |
| 51' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tom Smith · Colchester |
| 63' | 🟨 | Joseph Olowu · Doncaster |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tommy Rowe · Doncaster |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mo Faal · Doncaster |
| 79' | 🟨 | Bradley Ihionvien · Colchester |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Joe Ironside · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 211.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1229.60 | 1253.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.04 | 4.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| league points | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.62 | 23.11 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |