← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Nov 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 45% | 48% | 2.13 | fair |
| Swindon win | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Swindon −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Jay Rich-Baghuelou · Accrington |
| 17' | 🟨 | Jon McCracken · Accrington |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 18' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 25' | 🟨 | Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 29' | 🟨 | Brad Hills · Accrington |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 33' | 🟨 | Rosaire Longelo · Accrington |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 60' | ⚽ | Saidou Khan · Swindon |
| 87' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 29 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Matt Lowe · Accrington |
| 89' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Korede Adedoyin · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brad Hills · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brad Hills · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 4075.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1558.07 | 1493.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.54 | -20.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |