← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 36% | 38% | 2.67 | fair |
| Colchester win | 35% | 32% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Colchester +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 58% | 1.88 | value: +9% |
| Over | 49% | 42% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Luca Stephenson · Barrow |
| 20' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 37' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 43' | 🟨 | Dom Telford · Barrow |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samson Tovide · Colchester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamie Proctor · Barrow |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jayden Fevrier · Colchester |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | William Greenidge · Barrow |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jayden Fevrier · Colchester |
| 84' | 🟥 | Jayden Fevrier · Colchester |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| George Ray · Barrow |
| 90' | ⚽ | George Ray · Barrow |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Zach Mitchell · Barrow |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 24.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1439.10 | 1506.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.10 | 47.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 20.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |