← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 18, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 51% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.83 | fair |
| Bradford win | 24% | 23% | 4.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bradford −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 42% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Notts County |
| 36' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 42' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 45' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 57' | ⚽ | Alex Gilliead · Bradford |
| 69' | 🟨 | David McGoldrick · Notts County |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tobi Adebayo-Rowling · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aden Baldwin · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 24 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 3 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| coach days | 535.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1309.29 | 1338.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.31 | -32.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.69 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.70 | 28.10 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.43 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |