← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 41% | 38% | 2.33 | fair |
| Accrington win | 34% | 34% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.90 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Crawley Town −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 36% | 2.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Jack Nolan · Accrington |
| 8' | ⚽ | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Crawley Town |
| 20' | 🟨 | Korede Adedoyin · Accrington |
| 48' | ⚽ | Will Wright · Crawley Town |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dan Martin · Accrington |
| 52' | 🟨 | Klaidi Lolos · Crawley Town |
| 74' | 🟥 | Brad Hills · Accrington |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Crawley Town |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
| 85' | 🟨 | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 87' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Joe Pritchard · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 314.00 | 4058.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1425.33 | 1578.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.52 | 22.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.84 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |