← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 51% | 61% | 1.88 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Doncaster win | 23% | 18% | 4.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Doncaster −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 27' | 🟨 | Connor Lemonheigh-Evans · AFC Wimbledon |
| 39' | 🟨 | Armani Little · AFC Wimbledon |
| 41' | 🟨 | Zain Westbrooke · Doncaster |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jack Senior · Doncaster |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ali Al-Hamadi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 56' | 🟨 | Huseyin Biler · AFC Wimbledon |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ali Al-Hamadi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 72' | 🟨 | Huseyin Biler · AFC Wimbledon |
| 72' | 🟥 | Huseyin Biler · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Alex Bass · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 559.00 | 194.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1462.36 | 1415.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.29 | 15.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |