← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 43% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
| Swindon win | 32% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.82 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Swindon −0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Conor Grant · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 29' | 🟨 | Thomas Clayton · Swindon |
| 37' | 🟨 | Saidou Khan · Swindon |
| 39' | ⚽ | Max Dean · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 53' | 🟨 | George McEachran · Swindon |
| 54' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 66' | ⚽ | Warren O'Hora · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 84' | ⚽ (og) | George McEachran · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 86' | 🟨 | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium mk |
| 🟨 |
| Mohamed Eisa · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | ⚽ | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 27.00 | 180.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1526.67 | 1514.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.30 | -24.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |