← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 57% | 51% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.03 | value: +13% |
| Accrington win | 19% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Accrington −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Joe Pritchard · Accrington |
| 9' | ⚽ | Tommy Leigh · Accrington |
| 25' | 🟨 | Harry Pell · AFC Wimbledon |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jay Rich-Baghuelou · Accrington |
| 46' | ⚽ | Joe Pritchard · Accrington |
| 51' | ⚽ | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 54' | 🟨 | Brad Hills · Accrington |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kelvin Mellor · Accrington |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ali Al-Hamadi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 70' | ⚽ | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 82' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Huseyin Biler · AFC Wimbledon |
| 83' | ⚽ | Brad Hills · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 541.00 | 4040.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1486.54 | 1580.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.74 | 9.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |