← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 42% | 47% | 2.27 | value: +6% |
| Crewe win | 32% | 26% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.73 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Crawley Town −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Dion Conroy · Crawley Town |
| 15' | ⚽ | Klaidi Lolos · Crawley Town |
| 20' | ⚽ | Shilow Tracey · Crewe |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ronan Darcy · Crawley Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Will Wright · Crawley Town |
| 54' | 🟨 | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Crewe |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Dion Conroy · Crewe |
| 66' | 🟨 | Klaidi Lolos · Crawley Town |
| 75' | ⚽ | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Elliott Nevitt · Crewe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elliott Nevitt · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 293.00 | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1444.77 | 1537.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.56 | 11.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |