← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 39% | 41% | 2.48 | fair |
| Walsall win | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Gillingham +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Isaac Hutchinson · Walsall |
| 39' | ⚽ | Freddie Draper · Walsall |
| 49' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Gillingham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Isaac Hutchinson · Walsall |
| 60' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Gillingham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ross Tierney · Walsall |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tom Knowles · Walsall |
| 74' | 🟨 | Macauley Bonne · Gillingham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Oisin McEntee · Walsall |
| 85' | ⚽ | Isaac Hutchinson · Walsall |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Poundland Bescot Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Shadrach Ogie · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 196.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1423.35 | 1508.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.11 | -4.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.79 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |