← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 38% | 36% | 2.53 | fair |
| Colchester win | 36% | 36% | 2.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.74 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Colchester +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Jay Mingi · Colchester |
| 41' | ⚽ | Callum Morton · Forest Green |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kyle McAllister · Forest Green |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jay Mingi · Colchester |
| 47' | 🟥 | Jay Mingi · Colchester |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kyle McAllister · Forest Green |
| 77' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Forest Green |
| 79' | ⚽ | Mathew Stevens · Forest Green |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathew Stevens · Forest Green |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Bolt New Lawn |
| coach days | 470.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1449.17 | 1430.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.07 | -15.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.40 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -1.19 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |