← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 44% | 37% | 2.19 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 29% | 36% | 3.38 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +6% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Gillingham |
| 35' | 🟨 | Scott Malone · Gillingham |
| 55' | ⚽ | Scott Malone · Gillingham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jordan Williams · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 62' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jake Turner · Gillingham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Max Dean · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ellis Harrison · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Stewart · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 27 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| 90' |
| 🟥 |
| Daniel Harvie · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1499.28 | 1530.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.42 | -34.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |