← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe −0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Colchester −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Adam Mayor · Morecambe |
| 8' | 🟨 | David Tutonda · Morecambe |
| 16' | 🟨 | Donald Love · Morecambe |
| 21' | ⚽ | John Joshua Mckiernan · Morecambe |
| 24' | 🟨 | Zach Mitchell · Colchester |
| 36' | 🟥 | James Connolly · Morecambe |
| 53' | ⚽ | John Joshua Mckiernan · Morecambe |
| 61' | ⚽ | John Joshua Mckiernan · Morecambe |
| 73' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bradley Ihionvien · Colchester |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Joel Senior · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 220.00 | 613.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1443.91 | 1531.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.22 | 8.08 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |