← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 45% | 39% | 2.13 | fair |
| Colchester win | 29% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.83 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Colchester +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 43% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Noah Chilvers · Colchester |
| 14' | 🟨 | David McGoldrick · Notts County |
| 21' | 🟨 | Mandela Egbo · Colchester |
| 21' | ⚽ | Sam Austin · Notts County |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jayden Fevrier · Colchester |
| 37' | 🟨 | Aden Baldwin · Notts County |
| 38' | ⚽ | Arthur Read · Colchester |
| 48' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kyle Cameron · Notts County |
| 58' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 67' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 21 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Jodi Jones · Notts County |
| 68' | 🟨 | Samson Tovide · Colchester |
| 72' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 74' | ⚽ | Arthur Read · Colchester |
| 75' | 🟨 | Owen Goodman · Colchester |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 79' | 🟥 | Cameron McGeehan · Colchester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 213.00 | 486.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1442.49 | 1476.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.23 | 64.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.56 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |