← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 45% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
| Doncaster win | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Doncaster −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Ben Close · Doncaster |
| 11' | ⚽ | Tyrell Warren · Barrow |
| 22' | 🟨 | Tyrell Warren · Barrow |
| 26' | 🟨 | Zain Westbrooke · Doncaster |
| 32' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Doncaster |
| 36' | 🟨 | Gerard Garner · Barrow |
| 53' | ⚽ | Gerard Garner · Barrow |
| 56' | ⚽ | Joe Ironside · Doncaster |
| 57' | 🟨 | Robbie Gotts · Barrow |
| 65' | 🟨 | Kian Spence · Barrow |
| 85' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barrow | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | SO Legal Stadium |
| Emile Acquah · Barrow |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mo Faal · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 456.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1299.16 | 1217.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.82 | 19.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 24.78 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |