← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 64% | 57% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 27% | 4.84 | value: +32% |
| Forest Green win | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Notts County −1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 54% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 46% | 2.62 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 37' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 41' | 🟨 | Reece Brown · Forest Green |
| 43' | 🟨 | Kyle Cameron · Notts County |
| 56' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Forest Green |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ryan Inniss · Forest Green |
| 60' | 🟨 | Charlie McCann · Forest Green |
| 61' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Forest Green |
| 65' | ⚽ | John Bostock · Notts County |
| 68' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Notts County |
| 79' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Troy Deeney · Forest Green |
| 84' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Forest Green |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marcel Lavinier · Forest Green |
| 89' | 🟨 | David McGoldrick · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobi Adebayo-Rowling · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 479.00 | 449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1467.36 | 1481.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 73.45 | -49.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.62 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.38 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.49 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |