β EFL League Two 2023-24 Β· Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Rock
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Wrexham win | 59% | 63% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 18% | 16% | 5.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Grimsby β1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Wrexham β1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 60% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand