← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 54% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 19% | 21% | 5.20 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gillingham −0.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 44% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | George Lapslie · Gillingham |
| 11' | ⚽ | Michael Mellon · Morecambe |
| 23' | ⚽ | Connor Mahoney · Gillingham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jonathan Williams · Gillingham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Michael Mellon · Morecambe |
| 52' | 🟨 | James Connolly · Morecambe |
| 58' | 🟨 | Shaun Williams · Gillingham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Michael Mellon · Morecambe |
| 76' | 🟨 | Donald Love · Morecambe |
| 76' | 🟥 | Michael Mellon · Morecambe |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| David Tutonda · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 623.00 | 592.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1513.27 | 1532.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.62 | -9.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 57.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 34.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | -2.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -2.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |