← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 49% | 46% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.67 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 24% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Crawley Town −0.5 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Rafiq Khaleel · Crawley Town |
| 21' | ⚽ | Charlie Jolley · Tranmere |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ben Gladwin · Crawley Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brad Walker · Tranmere |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ronan Darcy · Crawley Town |
| 60' | 🟨 | Charlie Jolley · Tranmere |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ronan Darcy · Crawley Town |
| 66' | ⚽ | Samuel Taylor · Tranmere |
| 68' | ⚽ | Nick Tsaroulla · Crawley Town |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dan Pike · Tranmere |
| 76' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Will Wright · Crawley Town |
| 89' | 🟨 | Josef Yarney · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Klaidi Lolos · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 90' | ⚽ | Klaidi Lolos · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 258.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1443.22 | 1414.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.32 | -28.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |