← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 54% | 59% | 1.76 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.91 | fair |
| Sutton win | 21% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Swindon −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 41% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jake Cain · Swindon |
| 23' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 34' | ⚽ | Craig Clay · Sutton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ben Goodliffe · Sutton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 74' | 🟨 | Robert Milsom · Sutton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Sutton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Swindon |
| 87' | ⚽ | Rushian Hepburn-Murphy · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Sutton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| Ben Goodliffe · Sutton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 131.00 | 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1513.91 | 1406.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.34 | -57.49 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| league points | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 56.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | -2.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.43 | -1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |