← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Edwards
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 65% | 59% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.59 | value: +5% |
| Crawley Town win | 13% | 18% | 8.00 | value: +42% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport −1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Crawley Town −1 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 56% | 1.87 | value: +5% |
| Under | 48% | 44% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Louie Barry · Stockport |
| 36' | ⚽ | Antoni Sarcevic · Stockport |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ben Gladwin · Crawley Town |
| 42' | ⚽ | Adam Campbell · Crawley Town |
| 54' | ⚽ | Laurence Maguire · Crawley Town |
| 56' | 🟨 | Nick Powell · Stockport |
| 56' | 🟨 | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Crawley Town |
| 66' | ⚽ | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Crawley Town |
| 71' | 🟨 | Klaidi Lolos · Crawley Town |
| 84' | 🟨 | Aaron Henry · Crawley Town |
| 89' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stockport | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Edgeley Park |
| ⚽ |
| Isaac Olaofe · Stockport |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 670.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1555.69 | 1418.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.29 | 8.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |