← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 61% | 41% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 32% | 4.50 | value: +44% |
| Accrington win | 18% | 27% | 5.75 | value: +53% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −1 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Notts County −1 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 65% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 35% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jodi Jones · Notts County |
| 27' | ⚽ | Josh Andrews · Accrington |
| 61' | 🟨 | Aaron Nemane · Notts County |
| 64' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tommy Leigh · Accrington |
| 86' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richard Brindley · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobi Adebayo-Rowling · Notts County |
| 90' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| coach days | 458.00 | 3988.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1420.61 | 1627.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.50 | 6.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.79 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.63 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |