← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 54% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 4.02 | fair |
| Swindon win | 22% | 27% | 4.52 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Wrexham −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 62% | 1.67 | value: +4% |
| Under | 42% | 38% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 20' | 🟨 | Tom Brewitt · Swindon |
| 27' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jake Bickerstaff · Wrexham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Elliot Lee · Wrexham |
| 55' | ⚽ | James Jones · Wrexham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 64' | 🟨 | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Swindon |
| 71' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 12 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | STōK Cae Ras |
| Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 76' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Wrexham |
| 90' | ⚽ | James Jones · Wrexham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elliot Lee · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 779.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1375.68 | 1504.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.22 | -2.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.51 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.00 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.33 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.67 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.67 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |