← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 36% | 36% | 2.69 | fair |
| Colchester win | 34% | 32% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.35 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Colchester +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Mohamed Eisa · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 10' | ⚽ | Joe Taylor · Colchester |
| 13' | ⚽ | Joe Taylor · Colchester |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bradley Ihionvien · Colchester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jayden Fevrier · Colchester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mohamed Eisa · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 67' | 🟨 | Noah Chilvers · Colchester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Colchester |
| 82' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 85' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Mandela Egbo · Colchester |
| 88' | ⚽ | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Grant · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matthew Dennis · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 171.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1423.84 | 1569.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.75 | -7.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 67.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 64.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.33 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |