← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Aug 15, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 37% | 34% | 2.59 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 35% | 36% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.42 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Forest Green +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 47% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Tyrese Omotoye · Forest Green |
| 14' | ⚽ | Mathew Stevens · Forest Green |
| 26' | 🟨 | Liam Kinsella · Swindon |
| 42' | 🟨 | Harvey Bunker · Forest Green |
| 45' | 🟨 | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Swindon |
| 47' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Swindon |
| 61' | 🟨 | Harvey Bunker · Forest Green |
| 61' | 🟥 | Harvey Bunker · Forest Green |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dylan Kadji · Forest Green |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dominic Bernard · Forest Green |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Bolt New Lawn |
| 🟨 |
| Udoka Godwin-Malife · Swindon |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luke Daniels · Forest Green |
| 90' | ⚽ | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 410.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1543.63 | 1491.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.95 | 3.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |